...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY THIS EVENING AND MORE TO COME MONDAY... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADO. RISK...SIGNIFICANT. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM THE TULSA AREA SOUTH AND WESTWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...CRITICAL. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OKEMAH TO MUSKOGEE TO MIAMI OKLAHOMA LINE. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...AFTER 10 PM. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...AFTER 10 PM. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING. THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THE STORM MODE MAY TRANSITION TOWARD A LARGER STORM COMPLEX OR LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUGGESTING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN VERY LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION UNFOLDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS DOES FORM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN SPOTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. AS A RESULT...A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN THIS AREA. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS. THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENT FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVOLVES ON MONDAY. MOST LIKELY THE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT BEST. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. FIRST RESPONDERS AND DAMAGE RESPONSE WILL NEED TO BE IN CLOSE COORDINATION WITH THE ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
